Collins Sefa Economic policy analyst Dr. Theo Acheampong says Ghana’s 2026 Budget is likely to receive a positive response from investors as government works to consolidate recent macroeconomic gains and ease pressure on businesses through targeted tax reforms.
According to him, the fiscal plan presented to parliament strengthens Ghana’s economic recovery, supports stability and enhances prospects for investment and job creation.
“This is a credible budget that consolidates Ghana’s macro turnaround,” Dr. Acheampong said. He added that Ghana’s economic reset has progressed faster than many expected two years ago, even though challenges remain in the energy and state-owned enterprise sectors. He expects currency and bond markets to react favourably as confidence improves.
The comments follow the presentation of the 2026 Budget Statement by Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson, who described it as “the next phase of national renewal”, aimed at converting recent stability into stronger growth and improved living conditions.
Government is targeting a 1.5% primary surplus, sustained single-digit inflation and a stable cedi in 2026. In 2025, Ghana recorded one of its strongest fiscal recoveries in decades, shifting from a 3% primary deficit in 2024 to a 1.6% surplus by September 2025. Public debt also fell sharply—from GH¢726.7 billion in 2024 to GH¢630.2 billion by October 2025—helped by improved revenue collection, spending controls and currency stability.
International ratings agencies Fitch, Moody’s and S&P upgraded Ghana’s sovereign ratings in 2025, citing better debt dynamics and policy credibility.
Tax Cuts and Business Support
The budget introduces a series of tax reforms to ease the burden on businesses. Key measures include:
- Removal of the COVID-19 Health Recovery Levy
- Reduction of the effective VAT rate from 21.9% to 20%
- Abolishment of VAT on mineral reconnaissance and prospecting
- Increase in the VAT registration threshold from GH¢200,000 to GH¢750,000
Government estimates these measures will return GH¢5.7 billion to businesses and households in 2026.
Dr. Acheampong noted that the VAT overhaul signals an attempt to reduce the long-standing operational pressures on SMEs and align tax reforms with growth objectives.
Focus on Digital Revenue, Infrastructure and Social Protection
Government plans to expand digital tools within the Ghana Revenue Authority, including e-monitoring of taxable transactions, digital VAT systems for e-commerce and AI-driven customs inspection.
On expenditure, government intends to curb non-essential spending and channel funds toward infrastructure, agriculture, energy and education. Key projects include the Accra–Kumasi expressway PPP and the Ekye Amanfrom–Adawso Bridge.
Social programmes such as free senior high school, school feeding, NHIS and LEAP will maintain funding levels.
Dr. Acheampong cautioned, however, that risks remain from commodity price volatility and external shocks, stressing that disciplined budget execution will be essential.
“I expect the markets will react positively to the budget numbers,” he said, adding that sustained fiscal discipline will be crucial to maintaining investor confidence.
