Collins Sefa Ghana’s economy is showing signs of recovery, but major fiscal risks remain as the country approaches the end of its US$3billion IMF programme in 2026, according to policy consultancy EM Advisory.
In its review of the 2026 budget, the firm warned that although government has demonstrated fiscal discipline, the medium-term outlook is burdened by heavy debt maturities, domestic refinancing pressures and ambitious spending plans that may outpace available resources.
Debt Maturities Pile Up
EM Advisory highlighted the convergence of large external repayments—estimated at GH¢20 billion in 2026, GH¢50.3 billion in 2027 and GH¢45.8 billion in 2028—as one of the most significant challenges Ghana has faced in a decade.
This is compounded by an annual rollover of about GH¢137 billion in Treasury bills and an estimated GH¢71 billion needed to finance the 2026 budget.
Dr. Abudu Abdul-Ganiyu, Managing Partner at EM Advisory, said the scale of these obligations demands careful advance planning.
He noted that although the sinking fund continues to receive contributions, it remains insufficient relative to upcoming repayments.
Ambitious Projects, Limited Fiscal Room
The 2026 budget includes funding for several growth-driven programmes, including the GH¢30 billion Big Push initiative, expanded support for oil palm industrialisation and the roll-out of the proposed 24-hour economy.
While these projects could boost long-term growth, the consultancy warned that many lack complete feasibility studies and risk assessments.
“Project preparation is crucial. Without clear evaluations and strong financial documentation, the state risks repeating past instances of stalled or underfunded projects,” Dr. Abdul-Ganiyu said.
He stressed that transparent planning and well-designed public-private partnerships will be key to attracting private investment.
Caution Urged on Eurobond Market Return
With Ghana expected to consider re-entry into the international capital markets after the debt restructuring period, EM Advisory advised patience.
Dr. Abdul-Ganiyu said market return should be based on improved indicators—including durable expenditure discipline, primary surpluses and favourable credit ratings—rather than pressure to raise funds.
A premature Eurobond issue, he warned, could damage investor confidence or attract costly interest rates.
Progress Acknowledged, But Questions Remain
Despite concerns, EM Advisory acknowledged notable progress: declining inflation, stabilising currency performance and projected GDP growth of 4.8 percent in 2026. Revenue is also expected to rise to 16.8 percent of GDP, although the firm questioned how this significant increase would be achieved.
“The revenue assumptions in the budget are optimistic, and the details on how this improvement will materialise are still unclear,” the firm noted.
A Tight Path Ahead
The consultancy concluded that while Ghana has made strides in stabilising the economy, the coming years will require strict fiscal discipline, realistic project planning and transparent debt management to avoid a potential crunch by 2027.
