Collins Sefa Samsung Electronics has forecast a three-fold surge in fourth-quarter operating profit, driven by soaring demand for memory chips used in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, data centres and next-generation consumer devices.
In a regulatory filing released on Thursday, the South Korean technology giant projected operating profit of 20 trillion won (US$13.82 billion) for the October–December period, up sharply from 6.49 trillion won a year earlier. The figure surpasses market expectations of 18 trillion won and represents Samsung’s highest quarterly profit on record, exceeding its previous peak of 17.6 trillion won in 2018.
AI Infrastructure Fuels Memory Market Rally
Samsung’s results underscore the dramatic rebound in the global memory market, where tight supply and AI-driven demand have sent prices soaring. Memory chips such as DRAM are critical components in AI servers, personal computers and smartphones, enabling rapid data processing and model training.
Contract prices for a major category of DRAM chips rose 313 per cent year-on-year in the fourth quarter, according to industry tracker TrendForce, which expects prices to climb an additional 55–60 per cent in the current quarter.
The global DRAM market is projected to more than double to US$311 billion by 2026, nearly six times its size in 2023, according to Macquarie Equity Research.
Semiconductor Division Leads Earnings Growth
Samsung expects quarterly revenue to rise 23 per cent year-on-year to a record 93 trillion won, with its semiconductor division contributing the bulk of operating profit. Analysts estimate that the chip business alone generated approximately 17 trillion won in operating profit during the quarter.
The surge comes as major chipmakers—including SK Hynix and Micron Technology—race to expand fabrication capacity amid supply constraints.
Speaking at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang described demand as “terrific,” noting that the rise of AI factories is driving unprecedented need for new semiconductor fabrication plants worldwide.
Market Reaction and Cost Pressures
Despite the strong outlook, Samsung shares closed down 1.6 per cent, following a year-long rally that has seen the stock rise by more than 155 per cent, as some investors took profits.
Analysts caution that rising memory prices could pressure margins across downstream industries, including smartphones, PCs and data centres. Samsung’s mobile business is expected to face headwinds as higher component costs limit pricing flexibility.
Samsung co-CEO TM Roh, who oversees the company’s mobile, TV and home appliance divisions, acknowledged that rising memory prices would have an impact and did not rule out potential price adjustments across products.
Advanced Memory and HBM Growth Outlook
Looking ahead, analysts see significant upside in Samsung’s high-bandwidth memory (HBM) business, which is expected to accelerate from 2026 as demand grows for advanced AI chips and custom processors such as tensor processing units (TPUs).
Samsung co-CEO Jun Young-hyun recently said customers have praised the competitiveness of the company’s next-generation HBM4 chips, signaling a potential comeback in the premium AI memory segment and stronger positioning with key customers such as Nvidia.
Samsung is scheduled to release its full earnings report, including a detailed breakdown by business division, on January 29.
